Saturday 13 November 2010

Dollar Crisis - Major Impact To The Future Generation


Since 1973, under president Nixon administration, the fall of Bretton Wood system had planted a seed of global financial crisis. The new monetary system that replace Bretton Wood gold standard - Fiat Currency, had making country, especially United State to print as much money they desire to fund against imports and credits. Such phenomenal has create a irreversible disequilibrium in global financial system. On 2002, it has been reported money supply level in United state had set all time record high since peace time. The conservative estimation of 1.2 trillion us dollar of international reserve now available in the market. As replacement of dollar standard to gold standard, United state can purchase goods and services from other nation by debt. United state which her import are encompassing 75% larger than her export, has since became the major trading partner across the globe, especially those developing country such as china. Therefore, the stability of United State will direct effect the global economy health. The excessive cheap credit, Quantitative Easing policy, and the "helicopter" policy originated by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke during credit crunch crisis in 2008, has help fuel the monetary instability - debasing the dollar. Such intention to ease a temporary pain of economy crisis and stimulation to prevent deflation as happened in Japan, will make the asset bubble easy to be created than sustained. Money are pumping into the market to encourage private sector to invest and create jobs. However, the action has cause back-fire to United State as private market started to feel confident against the credit worthiness of the country. Dollar market become less attractive, as private investors started to selling their holding. But, simply selling the dollar will not help to prevent from being part of the dollar crisis. As United State is the major import nation to most export countries across the globe, the value of dollar will direct effect to its earning. By selling the dollar and exchange to their own currency, this will simply inflated the value of their own currency therefore making export less attractive. So, major export country such as Japan and China, to avoid the negative impact to the export sector and income to the nation, they will rather using its us dollar revenue to reinvest into us dollar dominated assets. Again, such action will making assets bubble in United State even bigger. Since in basic economic, everything that goes up must come down. As the conclusion, the ripple effect will be the perfect storm of economy crisis in future, which will cost be paid by the future generation. This will not be a rhetoric. This will be the episode of the son to pay off the father's debt. The question is how the young generation be able to do it? What will happen if the economy totally collapse? Will we be able to enjoy the peacetime we enjoyed for the past 50 years? Economic has always been the reason to social stability. Weimar Republic in German during post WW1 is the best example. In my point of view, history does has the tendency to repeat itself, as human tend to repeat the same mistake again.

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