Pushing the Problem Forward

On 2008, the global financial system in on the brink of collapse. Lehman Brother filed for chapter 11. Within 2 months, many giant financial institutions went through the same process of going bankrupt. AIG, Citi Group, BofA, and other comparable size of institutions, are no escape form the financial crisis. Major indexes went through a dramatic bear market, putting trillion of dollars in lost. Not until one of the biggest investment bank , JPMorgan heading to the same road as Lehman Brother, federal bank of united states step in. Too big to fail become a imminent crisis that the government worried the most. It is understandable that, with another big financial institution collapse, it will cripple the whole capital market. A ripple affect that will cascade down to every industry from commodities, foods, services and medical. There will be a catastrophic kind of mankind social disaster that will result to a bigger societal problem. The immediate "solution" - government step involved to carry the weight of trouble those bankers had made.

There are many major steps took by federal reserve of united states during 2008-2009 to solve the so called imminent problem, the "solution". First, bank can direct borrow from the federal reserve. Such move putting all taxes payer money direct access to banks, that consider on too big category to be able to "write-off" short term losses, meaning, bankers can do business by other people money, and having absolute insurance from government. A "guarantee-win" scheme for banks encourage even more aggressive investment in future. A immediate affect of the first move from the fed, result a flood of dollar to the market. With the advancement of technology todays, the fed does not need to induce money supply by physical minting. However, electronic book keeping enable the fed to provide required liquidity demand by banks and other financial institutions by simply register a figure. Such move are accompany by all time low interest rate, making a loan become cheaper.

Third, as there is no free lunch, by putting taxes payer money in stake, the government has to answer to their people. So, a declare of ownership for many private institution is the modest acceptable by the public. Many institution are being nationalized, particularly AIG. For the first time, the bureaucrat which notoriously bad in taking care of business, are on the business. It significantly making blur between the different of the position between private institutions and regulator. It sound like "communism" in some people's eye.

Forth, commercial bank and investment bank was once separate in different entity. It somehow putting up a barrier of risks from investment banking to ordinary people's saving. However, amendments is made during the crisis time, making pure investment bank become relic. It enable investment bank which the primary problem during the crisis to have a better access of liquidity to buried the holes that made at the first place, the government allow a merge between saving banks and investment banks for a better access of "capital". This putting a more dangerous timing bombs to the financial system which will drown every people saving, if the crisis preface again.

Fifth, the government become a bank dealer to "introduce" buyers to buy institutions that is in deep trouble in a penny price, plus a protection scheme from the government itself. Example, on 29 september 2008, well fargo are channel by the fed to "save" Wachovia. The scheme, the fed will secure the fund for the buy out. Isn't it good to buy something when somebody else paid for you.

Sixth, TARP - troubled asset relief program, become part of the lexicon in the industry. With banks' greed to seize profit during the boom time, many subprime mortgage are now somebody to pay off. Thousand losing their home, and value of houses drop dramatically after the feeding frenzy. Then, to win favor of people, the government swear to save thousand homes mortgage by provide TARP 700 billion funds.

Seventh, Henry Paulson, fed chairman during the time summon big banks to accept "loan" from government from the TARP fund to secure their position of any weak spot. All CEO of banks accept the loan. The truth is, government are using TARP as a channel for them to step into the affair of banking business.

The government go even further to step into the affair of business. Bank of America is forced to merge with Merrill Lynch on 2009, January 16. The Government secure the financing, making a bigger "too big to fail" giant emerge. The financing is secure by? nothing but a pure optimism of thing will be better in future. On march 19, 2009, Timothy Geithner, treasurer security under administration of Obama, step in to buy out toxic assets using PPIP (Public Private investment program). It allow private institution to lend hand to buy out toxic loan from the market with a security by government. Another scheme for huge profit potential with minimum risk. The risk all are bear by the government.

So, as a general conclusion from what we had been, the government does not really solve any problem. It only pushing the problem forward using future money by increase the government debt. The debt someday will collapse as a house of card. Today 13 trillion dollar is registered as debt hold by the united states. The systemic problem cannot be solved by simply amend few acts or big bucks. The system crisis is cause by greed and stupidity of the riches. They will not learn the lesson, if you do not let them to fall. The ignorance of the government and industry to accept the failure, hoping to use artificial means to deal with the law of nature, to mediate temporary pain by excessive pain killer, is a pushing forward the catastrophe of a perfect storm in future. Pushing forward is simply the worst kind of "solution". See what is going on and about to happen in the market , such as european debt crisis, middle east conflict, energies crisis, currencies wars, it all related back to the steps and "remedies" took by our regulator.

Globalization

Globalization. Word that is no stranger to people who live in 21st century. We heard of it, speak of it. But, what does it mean? What is the content and context behind the word, let alone the lexicographic part. The simplest way to depict the globalization is the world had and still is evolving from many to one. It means the boundaries between 150s nations we known today are depleting. The innovation and technological breakthrough since the collapse of berlin wall has leveled the economy and social field of our world.

In the old times, the world are separated into nations. Each nation preserved and live by its own rules. Protectionism is prevalent. Vertical is how the society work. Bureaucrat and strata status can be seen on both capitalist and socialist country. Today, the capacity of modem and fiber optic cable are enormous. Thanks to the over investment during the dot-com bubble on millennium. Together with exponential growth processing capacity of chips, more and more powerful portable device is invented. People are now able to buy a device with very low price that able to produce productivity of 50 person during 1950s. Beside, the device and bring you to the virtue world of internet that has no boundaries. Information are overwhelmingly available. People are connected in ways beyond imagination of our ancestor. By that it the prelude of globalization.

Globalization will ultimately bring forth 150s separate nations into one integrated community. Unlike during the cold world, the world is under two super power. Today, the world is going into the direction of no one in charges. The changes are unseen and progressively. Unfortunately, most of us unaware of it, even though we speak of it. The impact behind the changes will be evolutionary. It will change the way we live. It will change our belief. Those who cannot keep up with the changes will be left behind.

Firstly, the impact will be jobs. Most of developed countries now are facing challenges of jobs are being took away. Not just the blue collar jobs, but the white collar jobs. Countries such as india, china and south east asia, they are more younger, smarter and cheaper labor available to the market now. With convergence of information technology and the idea of capitalism oriented society, jobs are going to the most economic solutions. And more recently, automation are becoming trendy in the industry, where robotic solution are brought to replace human capital. There are many jobs now used to be human drive are now can easily be done by "0101 logic" drive robot. So, where will you place yourself in the new world. Are you worry about your future? As globalization will eventually bring the world economy toward global balances, there are equally fair in both opportunities and downsizes to everyone. Which part you will be will depend on how you be able to adapt and changes with the fast changing world.

Second, the economy and business will no longer limit by geographically. There will be no more saying Apple.inc in American company or RollsRoyce is a british company. The business activities itself are going off geography. Now, all business are looking to invest in countries that will provide economical advantages. Today, Apple.inc for example, are manufacturing its iPhones, iPods, iPads and Macs in China. As more most of her employee are now foreigner in foreign countries. How would you like to define Apple.inc are American company, even though she incorporated in America. It use to be the bigger the company in your country, the more benefit the people within the country will enjoy it. But now, the rules had changes. Developed countries are now no longer enjoy the privilege of getting the best business position first. Geographical element are no longer served you very well in businesses. There are no more different between company that from "America" than the company from "India". Both have a equal chances of striving in the new globalization world.

Third, company size are no longer matter. With technologies available today, one can be small and act big. Leverages are every ways. The business are no longer limits by the boundaries of physical location. Distance are no longer matter. Meaning, even the smallest company with the best innovative idea, can compete with the empire of state building. Fast, accuracy and effectiveness are the only answer will make the survive. You might be the king of the world today, but tomorrow you might be out of the businesses.

Fourth, political and social changes. As globalization is coming, the boundaries are depleting, government are going to deal with a more complex society. It is hard for a government to govern a society of 400 millions population such as America, giving with the resources and capability of greatest nation in the world today. Imagine how the society will become when 6.5 billion people are connected. How would government dealing each other and how will the culture collapse among 6.5 billion population end up with? It served as a double edge swords, as political and social idea are easy to spread, as many optimist suggest the world will become more civilized and educated and knowledge is now free everyday. It will prove that to be truth if only the good knowledge is spread. However, the information technology served those extremist with left-wing ideas to bring chaos to the world. The technology that human create today are impersonal to either good or bad knowledge. AlQaeda are the epitome for such case. The less boundaries world will bring forth a more complex society we will never encounter in history. Which direction we will be heading are still unknown.

Lastly, environmental issues, energy and natural resources. As the world become smaller, the demand of good life will be extensive. We all now the rules of 90/10, as 10% of population today enjoy the 90% of resources in the world. It work only if the world has the boundaries between the rich nation and the poor one. But, as globalization are contagious and persistence, the lower strata level of majority population will start to wake up and want to eat the pie. The demand of resources will be enormous. The frenzy of enjoy the riches enjoy, the american dream will make majority undeveloped country to do whatever it take to take the place of the developed country - including destroyed the ecosystem of our nature. The energy demand will exponentially grow in way of supply could not coupe with. It mean, the natural resource and energy supply will dwindle in the pace we human could not perceived. And by then, if without a proper education and planning on global scale, our world will be eaten up parasite that so frenzy and selfish - homo sapiens.

As the conclusion, globalization sound a word, but what lay within it is much more to learn. It is always truth that for everything we known, 90% are in the invisible. Therefore, we all must act and prepared for the biggest evolution to come. A very big challenges that every human kind need to participate actively or passively. It is a silent impact that gradually happening around us everyday, slowly and progressively in a growing pace. It will be a big event in the history book of our next generation.

Energy Crisis

Energy is part of our civilization. It is what keeping the economy to move and prosper. The energy provide us the source of light, heat, power and drive for our idea to be manifested in physical world. Energy give factory to produce, keep computer to work, keep the light to on, keep the building warm during winter, keep the vehicles to move and more. Energy enable us to erect 400m length of giant ship, enable us to send space ship to the moon, enable us to build bridges and roads, and finally enable to keep food production to sustain 6.5 billion life on earth (maybe not all 6.5 billion). Energy is playing a very important role in our everyday life, keeping our civilization stable and sustain. Energy is what drive the economy engine to run. Imagine what will happen when energy runs out?

Most of us will likely to believe the scientist will take care of it. The politician will not let such things to happen. It will not be at least during my time. Regardless which mindset you are, is irrelevant. It will never change the facts, indeed the cheap fossil energy we enjoyed for the pass few decade is running out. What could explain the recent surge of fuel price despite we undergo a major financial institution downsize in the history? What could explain despise the automobile market is on all time low, with jobless at America (the world major consumers) at 9.2%, and many European countries are on the brink of default (Greek for example); the energy price still on surge? With many economy calamities on global scale, which in fact will drive down the market demand (on aftermath effect); the energy price surge to all time high at 100 USD range. The simplest way to explain, is the supply had fall. As supply and demand is the most fundamental rule to govern the price of items (acknowledged there are other facts such as taxes, government policies and physiology of market), we now should be able to see the implication of energy supply crisis in near future. The crisis will bring severe recession, then depression, with hyperinflation ending (Wiemar republic German during 1910s); our known civilization world can collapse. Such implicitness incident are not new to us, as happen during 1970s, 80s. But, we human are very forgetful. Most of us reluctant or choose not to acknowledge the problems, let alone to act for prevention nor cure. How to please our boss tomorrow seem to be a more divine jobs to do for most of us.

As for every disease, come with certain cure. The crisis we might faced are not totally deathly. It just require a total new way of thinking and reformation of lifestyle in global scale. I am no expert to comment or suggest any solution but innovation and transition from dependence on fossil energy to clean conservative renewable energy (wind, solar, etc) is logically one of it. Unfortunately, such innovation effort are not even at half of silicon valley efforts (IT which is good to have, but without it, we still survive, as refer to our grandfather days) . Experts estimated as for US alone to do such transition will cause about 1 trillion dollar (equivalent to the expenses of world war 2). It require both public and private cooperation to make the change happen. It is worth it, if human can perceived the most obvious essential thing in life - heritage (civilization & our next generation survival) and our planet earth. What uses for the wealth (pseudo paper money), if the civilization are no longer exist, or be worst our used to be a clean green equilibrium world are on the brink of disastrous. It is not the 200% return of investment the good investment for us to made next year, but a negative return investment to our mother earth, which the only reason we able to survive until now.

Analysis Paralysis

Analyst - one of the formidable position in the world of investing. The job of analyst is to gather data and information pertaining to certain investment deal, put it into organized manner on a more comprehensible scale for investor to judge rationally whether or not to go with the deal. Analysis provide impersonal facts and justification for decision making. It a way of investing against speculative method. It is believed to be a logical method to eliminate, ideally all the risks with maximum reward - a perfect plan.

Back in 18th century to mid 20th century, to be a analyst is a privilege for only big institutions such as banks. Information were difficult to be accessed. It's belongs only to certain small group of manipulator - those who are rich and powerful. Then, after the cold war, and the Berlin's wall came down, world wide web went up. Today, the information age enable almost everyone to be their own analyst. Information is there to reach by plug in a Ethernet cable and a mouse click. The problem now is not where to get the information, but too much information. Just to separate between useful one from the non-useful one, takes a lot of time, despite the powerful computer leverage we possess. Other, is obsolete information where the world is moving so fast today. The answer yesterday are no longer valid by tomorrow. Our mind have to think as quickly as the world is moving or else we will be left behind. From supply and demand, market psychology, trend, consumer pattern to legal structures; it eat up brain cells of most investor to analyze a deal. As top down analysis is the what the prevalence way of most investor choose today, it often lure them into a paralysis pattern. With overwhelming information to be processed, they end up never ending processes. By the time old information is digested, they have to invite new information to be cross check. Imagine how exhausted you will be, while finding an answer for yesterday, but do not sure whether it will be useful today. It is like living in the shadow of yesterday forever - analysis paralysis.

Therefore, to avoid being trapped into analysis paralysis, one should consider innovation of analysis. Bottom up is good for small investor who wanted to start small by narrowing down the economy scale, for instance a city to a small town. bring in a team to leverage the brain power will be another feasible idea to do the analysis effectively. Finally, one should not look for the perfect result, but a guideline according to what you are looking for and your conditions. By counter off some detail, with greater detail to others, one can come with a optimum risks to rewards result, which depend of each individual situation. Analysis is never designed to eliminate 100% risks or making a perfect plan, but to create a pictures on how things will work out with given certain risk to reward ratio.

Make a Million from Nothing

I wish my parent had given me 10 of million of assets or trust fund to inherit with. Yet, it is not an excuse for me not to achieve my dream to own a million - or many millions. In life there are many challenges for each of us to meet. Some of us give up, move on and choose the life that make them secure rather than free and wealthy; some simply fight it and eventually get what they really want.

I see life as a gift. And I believe everyone is born in this world with special talents and gifts. Gift such as singing, preaching, dancing, painting and business. Unfortunately, most parents and teachers see those "gift" is as unnecessary and discourage us to develop the potential. The education system today teaching us only to be what the system want us to be - job and securities; rather than what we choose to be. They teach us only the "right" answer for them not for us. There are no right and wrong in way of life, only options and choices. Such system is greatly hinder our mind to think, to act, to be what we want to be.

So, how to be what we want to be, such a millionaire? Intended! Be conscious about yourself, know yourself and find out why you hate what you are today, and why you will love what you really want to be. Be passionate, and making every obstacle in life for you to achieve your dream as a challenge to your strength. Treat being poor, no college degree, no resources, no network, wrong timing as a gifted training in life for you to become stronger. See those as tests for your adventure to your dream. Life will not be so interesting, if there are no challenges. Devote yourself to your dream. And whose know, even if you could not achieve the dream, you still about to discover a more interesting life, a true meaning of life for you. By the end of time, you will be able to say to yourself, "I never regret". In the end, we all only have one life, so why living in the life that you don't want than a life that you want?

Value Investing - Cure to Financial Market Crash

Value investing is invented by Benjamin Graham, a notable famous professional investor and Economist who teaching at Columbia business School during 1928 - 1950s. His insight on the subject and principle of investing had greatly influenced many successful investor we have come to know today, specifically warren buffet, his greatest apprentice.

The concept of value investing and its idiosyncrasy principle is looked at the value instead of price. The best illustrate such principle is by the famous quote from warren buffet :" Price is what we pay, value is what we get". The value indicated on the theory is pointing toward the intrinsic and tangible value of a investment, generally the share of a public or private company. Benjamin Graham pointed out that, if should a rational investor buy a share of a company based on its intrinsic value, he or she are basically buying at the minimal risk - marginal safety. Such manner are buying at worst case scenario, should the company went broke, after liquidation of tangible assets, and pay off any attached debt obligations, investor are still be able to recover his or her initial investment money. Still such concept of investing had and still is prompt up many critics and controversy from many technical investors who does not share the same view; who believe in speculation, trend and ultimate earning can only come with fast capital gain of stock price.

Today, Value investing still preach by small group of true fundamental investors who are to be consider the more conservative kind. But, such practices are seem to be more difficult to maintain and keep, due to the volatility and speculation of today market behavior. Temptation of get rich fast scheme become prevalence. It is one of the reason that cause the many market bubble that eventually went to burst. Most of the investors who had read and comprehended on the subject, could not resist the temptation of market share price, and have forgotten what they been taught at the first place. If should the market can preach and walk the concept, million if not thousand of small investors will not fall pray in many of the market crash happened throughout our recent history.

* Also Tribute to David Dodd who equally important, along with Benjamin Graham in contribute to the idea of Value Investing

Terrorism - The Force that Feed of Fear

Terrorism is cheap. It does not need a multi million dollar to b be terrorist. Terrorism is just an idea that feed on people fear. It could be as effective even nothing is happen. From school delinquent, Urban gang to international level terrorist group had proven the idea of effectiveness of terrorism.

Terrorism had become more prevalent throughout 21st century. The 9-11 incident had make terrorism become the number one treat of all human race, above nuclear criss since the cold war. The idea of terrorism is insurmountable. Every time, we heard the politician noting about how they will hammer the terrorist, the terrorist had won. All the publicity warn about terrorist, enhance the emotional treat of people who listen to it. When the emotional state is not secure, people will act in contradict to logical sense. Terrorism ultimate goal is not to kill, nor destroy building. It ultimate goal is to plan a viral idea that could make collapse the social economy system of nations. If terrorism idea successfully to penetrate every single person mind, Money and resources will tend to be hidden, or hoarded rather than invest or spend. Remember, consumption is what drive our economy to move. Imagine, what will happen to the economy if everyone reluctant to spend? It is like a car without gasoline.

How to counter terrorist? There are many ways and methods being proposed domestically and internationally. Most of the ways are about eliminate the terrorist group, or a particular person or leader who believe to be the source of terrorism. It cannot be done. Why? Simply because you can't destroy a religion by simply burn down the temple or killing the priest. The Idea can never be killed or eliminated. It only can be tamed by another idea. The only way to against an idea is by another idea. It happen throughout the history of civilization of mankind. From the dark ages of west, where people have the lowest degree of moral integrity. It eventually come to the end by the teaching of Christianity. Therefore, the only way to fight terrorism is, by education and re-education.

Education is the key to make the world we know now to change. To eliminate all the negative elements such as terrorism. But, again come to another question, how? Unfortunately, even the general concept is there, I could not explain in great detail of such manner of solution, due to my limitation of knowledge and wisdom available now. Perhaps, someday, or someone, will be able to deliver it ...

Demographic and Generation

Demographic is a measurement of human population trend. It depicted the fundamental element regarding the population trend from gender, ages, religion, culture, income to region. It is a very useful information for every investor to have a first hand sense on how the economy outlook will be on both short term and long term prospect. In the end, the market could not exist without human into it. Therefore, population trend and pattern will ultimately decide the faith of the economy system we known today.

The economy or economic study is basically a subject evolve from anthropology. The economy could exist without people into it. Is the interrelationship and interdependent correlation of individual to individual made up a economy system in the society. We trade, exchange and maintain the stability of the society. Therefore the equation for such matter, economy the function to demographic trend.

Demographic is made up of element such as population number, gender, religion, earning, consumption, age and fertility rate. All those element will give us a general picture on how the demand and supply will be future, shirt term and long term. When the demographic is trending up, it normally drive up the demand, therefore the supply. This equal to a a certain degree of economical growth. If it is opposite, the economy will mostly stagnant or retreat according to the scale of decrease of demand. By understanding the demographic, one can be able to structure his or her overall investing plan for a better result. It is one of the key element that every sophisticated investor must learn and master.

Speculating is not Investing

Speculation is what make up the financial market today. Speculation is a scheme on predicting what might happen tomorrow basis on what information that get today. Speculation has become dramatic than ever throughout the history of mankind than ever, thanks to the overload information technology that break the wall of geographical limitation for information to spread. Rumors, opinion and facts becoming more ambiguous. It draw people to confuse what they are actually doing in the market - speculating or investing. Unfortunately, most of the average investor thought there are the same thing.

Speculation is by means betting on something to happen in future based on opinions and rumors. It a merely a guessing game tactic that used by most speculator for the financial gain in the market. The scheme have no real control mechanism involved. It therefore, rely in the reaction of external force toward their guessing game. It is no more different in betting on Craps table in Vegas. On the contrary, investing involve gathering, analyze, and filtering data from reliable sources. They using their knowledge to differentiate between facts and data. They understand they could not predict the future. They are on the scheme of developing a strategy to be prepare in what might happen in future. They are in using a sophisticated strategy to hedge again the drawback of market force, while preserving the advantage position to gain financially. They weight against reward and risks and allocate their resources wisely, unemotionally. It is more like a boring mechanical formula that do not involve any gut instinct to act upon. It a calculated financial profiling of the market trend. More often, it take years of practice and experience before an individual can become a sophisticated investor. There are no overnight expert when come to investing.

By being able to understand the meaning of word, an investor are able to act more rationally to gain his or her place in the volatile market place. It is very important, especially in today market, any changes are happening in the fastest pace that we never encounter before.

Anonymity is Resource

Most of people today underestimated the power of anonymity. They often trap themselves into a psychological framing of no-body can never to beat somebody. They therefore fall trap into process of looking for a free ride from the market leader.

In today world, the market is flood with, if not thousand, but million of product. An average hypermarket in big cities, have approximately 12,000 to 60,000 products. Still, most of the product are indirectly or directly relate to the big boys in the markets. Computer market, peopel relate themselves IBM, HP and Dell. Smart phone - Apple, HTC, Samsung. Paper product - kleenex. Ketchup - Heinz. They tend to imitate what the big boys is doing, as because they think they are no-body. The metooism and improved products are preached by today small companies . They think this is the only way to turn themselves from no-body to somebody. They want to become somebody before they have courages to do it their way. Unfortunately, often, the only scheme those metooism is keeping up with the jones with the big boy, and remain no-body.They never dare to announce themselves as "no-body" and has nothing to do with "somebody". They do not do it as their way, even though they might have a better innovation way of doing things. They underestimate the power of anonymity.

President Nixon is a "somebody" that almost everyone knew, but almost anybody can beat him. That just a extreme example, but not a isolated case. Today, even media is looking for new fresh young look to be introduce to make a new buzz. The audience are very knee to expect something news and underdog to come into market. Even former famous American film maker, printmaker and painter Andy Warhol once said " in future, everyone will be famous for 15 minutes." Therefore, when the 15 minute arrive, be prepare and make most of every second, to earn a extra minutes. Do not underestimate the power of anonymity. Keep it until you ready to spend it. And remember, if you wish to spend it, spend it big and wise.

Business - Is not About the Product

Today, we heard a lot of people saying they want to start a business to become rich. They claim to have a great idea with great product that will definitely make a business to be successful. But after years or 2, they often come back, it just not going to work. Business is just for the rich. Business never be a arena for people to win. It is a game for crock and con-men hang out. You need to be deceptive in order to be success. Therefore, business is for those who are evil.

I tend to agree on there are some negativism in business arena. But, i never agree on business is an arena of full of risks and evil. As in any arena, or life, there are always good and evil elements. So, what is the drawback, what make a business success and what make it fail? The key word is system. For any business, people often hypnotize themselves in finding an ultimate products. Product do place a certain important in business, but it is consider to be the least important among the factors that will affect the outcome of a business. Why? Because, there are thousand if not millions of idea, great products available across the globe. Even, in communities we are living in, we often heard and seen, idea of somebody are being realized by some company, and make of billion of it. Also, we seen good products unable to place any position in market no matter how goods is it. Ask about people who did bought burger from side road burger stand, they will tell you, it taste better than McDonald. But, they never make up to become a business scale like McDonald.

System it the key that make a business to success or otherwise. System that make up of strong mission, team, leadership and management. Those element is not arbitrary regardless from a small burger stand to a MNC. It might sound simple for certain business such as selling screw and nuts on internet, but the system thats is involved is equally complex in order to make it success and profitable. It is complexity on inside with simplicity on the outside that make a business to growth. Build a great system with great team, any kind of business you are in, success it just a matter of time.

Economic: It is Not About the Growth

Economic was never been a subject of study until 1800s, when Adam Smith introduce the concept of invisible hand (free market) that govern the stability of market. Economic had since become so important, especially in today world, as it is direct matter to the stability of civilization. Stability by means not unlimited growth barrier but balance in term of trade, innovation, consumption and ultimately civilization.

Today, many had caught themselves off guard to the meaning and purpose of economic study. Economist are now obsessed in to find a solution that could bring the economy growth limitlessly. They are against the fundamental principle of the economic study, the nature law of balance. The law of economic are the same as the law of gravity. It act upon regardless people recognize it or otherwise. In the economic study, the rule of thumb is "cycle". Cycle by mean, when there are something is up, something else has to be down. The tree does not grow into the sky. There be a time for it to come back to the ground. In term of so many mainstream economist and policies makers, they advocate of maintaining positive growth, surplus in trade and other economic gains every years, is nothing but a pipe dream. Instead of pursuing growth and surplus, trade balance is what should they pursue. As every surplus in trade, come with a deficit country. A sense of winner is relatively somebody has to be a loser. No one want to be a loser. Therefore, balance trade is the most harmony and jibe with the nature rule of economy. In the end, no one will be happy living alone as the wealthy person, but surrounded with depress and poor neighbor.

Today, many people are afraid of economy recession. They shouldn't be. As it just part of the cycle process as every spring will end with winter. Instead of afraid and panic, they should embrace it, understand it, and think positively toward every recession is a reset time of the game of economy (money). And it also can provide a better clean white sheet to start with for any economy reform, as a result of postmortem of previous economy model.

What is the value of Money

Ever since Money is introduced, it has become the most "important" element that human perceived in today world. Money has the magic and power to turn a person to do whatever its take in order to get it. Therefore, it has been a very famous quote about money : " money is not everything, but without money, there are nothing!"

So what exactly this money is all about? Money by means, is just a medium of exchange. It represent certain "perceived" value by people to buy and sell goods. In the ancient time, people trade by simply exchange goods among them. It is called the system barter. There are no medium of exchange exist. The difficulty come, when they try to have a fair trade among people. Question such as how many eggs worth a chicken? Then, money is invented. Shell, gold, and silver are the first to introduced as money. Then revolution came, paper money are introduced to replace hard money, since the government think that it is much better off to print money freely then to be constrained by the limited supply of gold and silver. Years goes by, people has accustom to paper money. The mind framing has reinforced the money position in human mind. It become such a big impact to people life, which it become a new opium in new civilization. It become so emotional, that people will do "stuff" to keep it, and take it from others. The truth is, money has no value. It is just an idea of value, a deceptive perceived value by people. Money is just a piece of paper. A paper that could be turn into nothing as it is. The money has no intrinsic value nor a tangible value. What we want, is ins't the money, but the stuffs that money could buy. The real value is the foods, the cars, the cloths and the charities. Therefore, people should not being too emotional attached to the pseudo paper money, but be more more generous to bring out true value that money still can produce before its pseudo value started to be eaten away by many factors such as inflation, excessive cheap credits and irresponsible government policies.

So, money is just money, it is nothing but a piece of paper. We should be concentrate of preserving and bringing out a valuable contribution, innovation and invention for the holistic benefit of society and environment while it still can, rather than pursuing and giving up the real valuable assets (earth, mother nature, ethic, peace) for such paper money. However, sadly, as I speak, many are still giving up the true value to a pseudo value.

Future Outlook of World Economy

The world economy will go through a dramatic changes in years to come. From industrial age to information age, and now conceptual age, we had and has gone through plenty of boom and burst. Ancient economist had trying to understand the nature of economic, to put it into a simplified perspective for generation to come, for the benefit of society as a whole. Theory and economy model was discovered and create by the wisdom of famous economist such as Adam smith, John Struat Mill, David Ricardo, Parson Malthus, Karl Max, Veblen Thorstein , John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman; from laissez faire economy model, utopia communism to current socialism-capitalism. Yet, non of those economy model can or will to bring out a perfect system.

Since the breakdown of Bretton Wood system, the economy outlook has been the gloomiest ever since. Government, specifically Uncle Sam for its own benefit, whose currency is the international trading currency, can virtually finance its expenses by simply creating money out of the blue. Such phenomenal, so far had been accepted by most of U.S trading partner is due to the confident to U.S taxes payers ability to pay off the debt someday in future. As by more than 5 decades since WWII, U.S state had proven to be the strongest nation in the word, she had become an exemplar for most of the nations in the world to emulate its administration system, including economy policies. Therefore, to maintain its advantage position as a nation who possess cheaper currency, by definition, for every surplus develop nation received from U.S, they need to print as much as its own currency to avoid any surge in the its forex exchange rate. Albeit, tree does not grow into the sky. The world now had fall trap into a paper money (fiat currency system) world, that one day, people will realize the paper money they are holding now, is nothing but figment of imagination value, a ponzi scheme that created by our government. History can reveal the future, as people often repeat the same mistake. Weimar republic during early 1910s in German had well depicted the Scenario and outcome of paper money policies.

In foreseeable future, we will see how fiat currency system will collapse in the scale that human race never encounter before. The perceived value will shift in phase from money (paper) to something human really need. There is no turning back. The intervention of government will no longer helpful, but to exacerbate the problem. Therefore, we must prepare and face the problem once and for all, for the biggest economy reset in year to come. Only the adaptable can survive the changes.

The Collapse of Monetarism

Monetarism is an economy model originated by John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman. Since the collapse of Bretton woods system on 1971, Monetarism had prevailed in our today economy world. In the concept of monetarism, it stated that, the stability of economy system can be controlled by regulating the money supply. By controlling the money supply, government is believed to be able to react effectively to the condition of the economy. A overheated market or depress market, government can mitigate its negative repercussion by controlling the money supply valve - interest rate & taxes.

The problem now, is there are too much money being supply into the market since the break down of Bretton Woods system. Statistic had shown a 2000% increase of money supply throughout the world from 1969 to 2002. The market flooded with cheap credit will create a huge assets bubble that will ultimately burst. Such phenomenal is not a "what if" scenario but "when" and "how big" scenario. Many implication can be seen throughout the 1990 to 2010, as property bubble and systemic failure of banking system in United state and Japan. Both country are been trying to use money supply to fix the current economy problem, but for more than 2 decade, the economy problem only to become bigger. Such form of keep pumping cheap credit to the market to stimulate the market will not only increase the debt burden of most government including the wealthiest G7 countries, but will ultimately making the government unable to pay the debt. For that, confident of the market toward the government will fall. Panic will occur. The money printed will become worthless. Commodities and intrinsic value items such as gold and silver will soar in price, turn the market of deflation to hyperinflation, such as happen during Wiemar Republic of German during 1910s.

It is true you may fight fire with fire, but it is impossible to fight water by water. Economy is all about liquidity. The world is trying to fight the liquidity with liquidity. It is no difference by making a drunken person to drink more, hoping, he might get better. Doing the same thing hoping for different result is what insanity all about.

Integration or Diversification

Integrate mean putting together and operate with harmony, diversify mean by putting apart and operate separately. In the world of investing and business, there is always a favor toward diversification. It the by far most acknowledged risk mitigation. That's why we often can hear financial experts from mutual funds, insurance and banking industries touting on the virtue of invest for the long term and diversify.

The facts is, most of the investor do not win by such diversify strategy. It does not mean they will always lose in monetary form. Diversification often making investor to be sort of break even. This is not diversification is bad. It is just because of its nature. Diversification is a strategy to "not lose", they not created to win. By definition of its nature rule, how could you to win by apply a "not to lose" strategy? Not to lose is not as same as winning. The closer definition of not to lose - obviously is "break even". Of course, the "break even" is only means of amount of money involve. Considering of inflation and time, diversification could be a very bad strategy to utilize.

Integration is a conglomeration of various form of investment vehicles, operate harmonically with a plan. Yes, the keyword is a plan. Investment to be rich is not a product, is a plan. A plan that is so unique structured based on individual circumstance to win with lowest risks, highest rewards and shortest time. Integration do not care on how glamor or grandiose a investment deal is. they are in care on how will such products will fit into they plan, to archive what they want. Integration make things more comprehensible, controllable and simple. Therefore, integration is a plan to win.