Currency War

From 1870 to 1914 was the golden age of gold standard. International trade transactions was all settled by gold. Since the gold itself doesn't have any sovereignty mark on it, it was the ultimate fair instrument trade between nations. During this time, paper currency was only used in domestic market, and it is exchangeable to equivalent gold weight at a fixed rate. Circulation of paper money supply is regulated at the amount of gold reserved by the nation. There was no manipulation of currency, inflation was almost zero, and employment remained stable. Trade cycle was self corrected by the market force. Function of central banks were very little.

The end of gold standard come right after the end of WWI, with the treaty of Versailles. The war was never end with surrender but an armistice. The treaty was a inter-soverinty parties involved in the WWI to negotiate the peace. England and France seek reparations from German and Austrians. German was asked to cded territory and some industrial capacity at the same time to commit with the financial reparations. This limited the affordability of German to actually meet the treaty. (This was lead to raise of Nazi on later date.) Therefore, it force German Weimar republic at that time to print more worthless paper currency at unprecedented rates to pay the reparation despite gold availability. The devalue currency also make German product become cheaper , therefore hopefully will induce exports to raise. This mark the beginning of manipulation  and devaluation of currency entail hyperinflation and collapse of economic system.

In economy, there are mainly being categorized into several main products, stock market, commodities, bonds. Each of these markets are invert related to others. A stock market crush will make commodities and bonds market more attractive vice versa. However, for all these markets , there underlying value are all based on its own nominated currency. If the currency of a sovereignty collapsed, it will wipe out whole market systems. Such differences between financial market products, and currency; clearly indicate the currency its the ultimate financial weapon. On 1971, with embarkation from Bretton Wood system, gold was out of the picture. International currencies backed by each sovereignty reputation and good wills become the only medium of exchanges between international markets. Economy since was the life blood of any country civilizations, each nations are now on the race to ensure their currency is cheap, to encourage competitiveness in export, to promote surplus in budget and boost employment. However, there never be all nation's currency is cheap. No one want to be the loser in the races. New agenda systematically arise in this new international currency game. Currencies become a new weaponry system for one nations to undermine their counterparts through manipulation, capital control and trade policies

Since 1971s, second currency war has emerged from skirmish into a chaotic global mess. The players now are no longer limited to sovereignty funds, but international corporation and rich hedge funds which many has no national agenda. It was the reason 1997 financial panic that happened through out south east nations, far east nations and south Americans. Again, the events was never affected US, and her dollar faiths in global markets. Lesson was not learned. Then on 2000 onward, 2 new giant currency bloc joined the game, european union and china. The bilateral trade between US and china, and the interdependency of US banking system with European union, had for the first time, put US at the position, not to undermined the treat of currency war to its national interest. Finally, at the end of the first decade of 21 century, with recent events of 2008 financial meltdown, US strike back with a big blow of its currency weapon , QE plans, which forced many its counter trading parties to revalued their currency relative to US dollar or risks uncontrolled inflation risks within their own nations, which could undermine it social stability. This "betrayal behavior" which quoted by many international currency victims nations, of US, had many of her currencies contender caught off-guard. However, such currency war had end come to its end. Unless otherwise there is a more effective international unbiased regulatory body than currently G7 to G20 forums, and a global concession of international currencies solution, the currency war is only going to be uglier and contagious. Such trend will risks the global market melt down, and forcing all nation back to it own individual iron curtain scheme, which will greatly undermined international logistic systems of demand and supply. It risk a total stagnation, worst collapse of social economy system, at international scales.

Globalization II

Globalization was initially introduced in 1960s, but it took another 30 years to become prominent terms. The first globalization was actually happen early 1900s. It was globalization through steam ship and rail roads. The world, under british empire was interconnected by sea and land. Radio was introduced which made communication across Atlantic faster. Telegraph was enable message convene across continent within weeks. It was the first mark of global financial interconnectivity. Until at late 1920s, the first global financial melt down, that spread in global scale. The interconnectivity of financial market, was a double edge sword that can cut on both side.

In early 1990s, right after the berlin wall event, it was the boom on innovation in telecommunication. Cold war was ended. Capitalism finally emerged from the iron curtain of communism and socialism. Nations come to international forum, for the first time, with negotiation and concession, through treatise, capital control policies and international trade taxes policies become more accommodative to enable effectiveness of global financial activities to be convened. It was the right time for global corporation which initially struggle to take advantage of global market, for all the obstacles and limitation imposed since 1930s through late 1980s. These global corporation has no national agenda,a and non-soverignty entities. The global trade treatise, which mostly lobbied by many of these international corporations, was a 21 century version of Magna-carta. It make capital flow freely without boarder. It enable them to take advantage of global man power supply, natural resources, taxes polices, logistic and geopolitical advantages to maximized their profitability interests, even at the cost of their own nominal national interests. What happen next was exponential growth and advancement of technological breakthrough that facilitated the interconnectivity of global financial market at the unprecedented scale.

With loose regulator on global stages, where by, there is no real true global government to oversee these global corporations financial activities, the frenzy greed and irresponsibility of financial exploitation, it was the time boom for global financial market melt down. At classic term, financial products was only sold at it underlying real assets value, with mainly limited to it own geographical local stages. However, at today global financial market, derivative market has no such limitation. Sub-prime mortgage could be loaned at Taxes, packaged by broker firms at new york, underwriting by London Banks, and sold at german markets. And many of such derivation was only a scheme which no real assets value but only virtual financial products which it price fluctuated relative to it underwrite financial products which sold at different markets. Suddenly such, a whole level of house of cards was build overnight at the speed of light through internets, 24-7.

At current trends, the hot money bloated under the second globalization scheme without proper regulatory remedies, will eventually reach to its limit, and should it burst, and it will, will produce a unprecedented scale of financial catastrophe which will literally wipe out all the stock market, commodities and bonds markets on the true global terms. It will destroy not only the economy activities, but will bring forth global logistic , social trust, civilization connectivity, culture and religion crisis. It will bring forth WarWorld III, not by weaponry, but by culture social panic. The world will not fight among sovereignty. The world will fight within their own sovereignty, and implode.

Sovereign wealth fund

Sovereign wealth fund or SWF is a form of investment institution fully owned by state administration and handled by government central bank. The SWFs was originally was focusing to provided adequate reserves for trading liquidity and funds government projects. Prior to abolishment of Bretton Wood , by President Nixon 1971, the impact scale of SWFs to market movement was relatively insignificant compare to other financial institutions. Fiat currency system escalate the size and number of SWFs existed globally. 

American introduced global fiat currency system nominated with US dollar to avoid Gold Run by global communities, and enable the nation to buy more with debt currency. The influx of Dollar printed out of nothing to enable US to fund the purchases of commodities and goods from US trade partner. This provided surplus of budget to US trading partner at the unprecedented scales. This make number of countries who received the dollar able to accumulated the surplus reserved faster. As central banks are not formed to handle enormous unprecedented wealth at such scale with no historical references, for the first time, central bank required to figure out how and where to invest this surplus reserve to counter inflation. The immediate option to such enormous funded SWFs was low risk low return and high liquidity instruments. US Treasury bills and bonds become the only options. Such implication in fact is good for US, since the fiat currency system nominated in US dollar make SWFs has no other option but to put back printed dollar back to US, with minimal interest. It make all SWFs could not afford to devalue the Dollar. This had since make US trading partner such as Japan and China as the continue to buy US Treasury bills and bonds at its budget surpluses. This enable Us continue to buy commodities and goods with cheap dollar, then selling low interest bonds (normally below annual nominal inflation rate) to fund government activities, then paying back by simply printing more money.

However, after years 2000s, with exponentially growth of monetary supply in the market, SWFs could not afford to continue only invest into low risk low return instruments such as treasury bills and bonds because they keep losing the underlying value of the invested bills and bonds, as long as US print more money faster every years. Since most of central banks aware that US policies on fiat currency system was a no win proposition to them, and they could unlikely to change the system without getting them-self hurt, they now looking for alternative investment scheme which could provide high return at shorter time. The gained now is not only focus on monetary but as well as geopolitical interest and technological know how acquisition. 

Global public listed corporation are known to own most of the proprietary of  cutting edge technological know how especially US corporation. As those company share are often publicly listed, SWFs can access to the technological know how simply by employ buy out strategy. By acquiring such corporation through SWFs, nation of less developed condition can have direct ownership to cutting edge technological know-how which provide advantage oftenly to military therefore geopolitical interests.

 

With introduction of financial derivatives, now the SWFs can manipulate the underlying commodities prices simply by speculating the derivatives instruments. Today, most of the commodities export countries are heavily rely on high commodities price for survival, if one nation are hostile against other, they simply could use the enormous scale of SWFs to manipulate the underlying commodities derivative therefore causing volatility of the commodities, which could create huge impact to the stability and sovereignty of a nations. This enable huge countries with huge SWFs to always be on the upper-hand of global financial control. And the small countries will have negative implication behind such global financial games. 

With time, SWFs had evolved from pure governmental reserved management fund into a formidable and practical financial war instruments. The SWFs has since made the global financial market become more complex and more volatile. SWFs now is an official economical nuclear forces that could cause global financial melt down, that will give huge impact to global social stability. Such institutions if not properly regulated, could very much become the beacon of WWIII.

Debt Instrumented Economy Model

Today our economy is fueled by debt. Economy only growth when debt continuously introduced. This because of fiat currency system set in placed since 1971. Fiat currency is a currency pegged by government ability to service the interest of debt. It does not tie to any kind of commodities such as gold and silver. It make government , or the bank cartel to able to print money at will as long as the public sentiment confident on the government public to service the debt. It enable government for the first time be able to use future resources.

Debt is leverage instrument commonly known today. We buy a house, we leverage by ratio of 90:10. It introduced debt to our account at certain interest rate. It entrusted the debt to us for betting our future capacity to pay it off. It does make sense to most of public since for the first time, one does not required to save up to years of working, then only be able to buy a house at full price. It gratify most of people in instance, making such economy model so favorable on facet. However, the truth behind the debt economy model, it only really benefit the riches. As originally most of the real estate are owned by the riches, it enable the riches to command an future resources simply by selling it. In fact, the property price ever since increase at astronomical level, since suddenly, there are so many affordable buyer, but the available piece of real estate very much limited by its nature. And again, since most of the financial institution is owned by the riches, the riches could simply secure the debt they introduced to the public by making the piece of property they sold at the first place collaterally tie to the term and condition of the debt. It make public working for them forever by selling the property at high prices, with high interest rate.

Introduction of debt make flux of money supply into the market. Since the resources now is multiple by the factor of future available resources. it enable all financial institution to bloated. With so suddenly so much money and resource to be utilized now, which only get to be paid by future generation, gratification surge, private and public consumption raise to a whole new level. Economy was doing good, since now people spending like there is no tomorrow. Debt was pass on from one to another like the value of which ever transaction they are into it will continue raise forever. The truth fact was, people just in the game of switching debt chair hoping there is another fools willing to take the barton at higher price for the speculative instinct. Government and financial institution understood the game. Ever since all economy surge event solely due to more debt was introduced at sentimental value rather than real productivity innovation or technological innovation. So, in order to continue enjoy the gratification now, and knowing it will never required to be paid by now generation, government, politician and financial institution continue stimulate the market with policies encourage public to continuously put themselves into debt. Credit card, car loans, private loads, school loans, pay-it-later scheme become new economy trend. As baby booming age now all in its golden age of productivity and peace time after cold war, it create miracle economy booms like everyone is a genius by themselves.

Until recently, the debt game had come to the brink of total collapse. Unfunded government obligation such as medicare, retirement funds, unperformed private debt, overload government debts, with stagnant of industrial productivities, and negative demographic trends; the risks is imminent . Among all the issue created by the debt, negative demographic trend was the vicious of all. The debt model only will work when young generation has the capacity to service the debt passing down by prior generation. It is like running on the barton. Currently demographic trend shown that at most of the developed country, there are far less younger generation in population compare the the coming retirement of baby booming age generation. The old players exist at no new player to make the replacement will utterly cause the greatest disturbance to the stability of our current economy model. The riches are already exist the game since they introduced the debt game. The 90% of the rest of the public population is the one that is not prepared to such phenomenal catastrophe economy apocalypse . It will potential destroy everything we known of if the house of card collapse abruptly. It will create global social chaos. Unfortunately, government and banks cartel are not taking effective step to allow the economy cool down itself. They continuously feeding for debt to hopefully cure the debt. What do you think about our economy and social structure at our current economy trend? Unless new industrial innovation or some kind miracle global economical collaboration, we are going nowhere.

Correlation Between Technological Innovation with Economy

Steam Engine invented by James Watt during 1781 mark the first economic boom in our modern society. Work done by utilizing steam with heavy mechanical parts proven to be much more effective and powerful in relative to animal and human strength during that time. It make western civilization to overpower the eastern nation despite civilization in the west was much younger by archaeological records. Productivity increase follow by higher quality of goods could be produced at the shorter time and economical way open up unprecedented wealth to the nation who master the art of steam engine. Larger and larger mechanical meant was now accessible such as steam ship which make goods to be transported internationally faster and cheaper.

Second revolution come with discovery of electricity. Electricity make power transferable and storable in a very efficient and safe manner. Battery made of ceramic jar compound was invented to store energy.  Discovery of direct current by Thomas Edison make electricity bulb possible to make night time a day light. Tesla alternative current make possible of cheap power grid to be installed that able to connect power through out a large region despite differ capacity at many terminal point. A single power pant can feed a whole city. It make a city economy even more prosperous. Giant business organization like General Electric was the product of such revolution.

Third revolution come with democratize of horseless carriage of automobile. Henry ford Model-T mark the history milestone of individual mechanical transportation revolution. Automobile induce development of infrastructure such as road and bridges interconnect cities. It open up the whole new level of communication and trade within a region making new kind of economical boom. Cities make adjacent town become new cities. Accessibility make economy competitiveness within region more efficient therefore increase incentive based economical innovation.

Fourth Technological milestone is telecommunication. Telegraph make information spread faster than ever. Intercontinental and geographical limitation for people to communicate become less obvious. Efficient communication and information exchange make possible cross continental idea exchange further enhance the technological breakthrough which give birth to new economy. Alexander Graham Bell, father inventor of telephone taking another step to make communication through individual more powerful. Business now can be conducted through voices and faster making trade more efficient.

Then coming the age of electromagnetism. Radio and satellite was made possible. As ephemeralization dictated, the invisible force of electromagnetic open up a new level of inter connectivity. It was the cradle of internet and world wide web. It made computer and electronic equipment to be valid for mass produced to utilize the availability of electromagnetic force in the sky. It open up a whole new kind of business never fully comprehended by public. A greatest boom in the history since 1989.

As such are some of the brief correlation of economical boom with discovery of new technological breakthrough. Although, many of technological event such uranium revolution (nuclear energy, from Einstein E=MC^2), quantum mechanism etc, were not mentioned here (no doubt many of the above breakthrough was directly or indirectly from such discovery); the important message from this essay here is to emphasize that, all the historical economy boom and burst is direct correlated to technological event, rather than financial aspect. Economy boom when useful technological innovation is introduced. And Economy become plateau or downward when technological invention stagnant.

   

Economy is not about money, it is about people

History of modern economy started from invisible hand concept by Adam Smith during 17 century. Market force was recognized as the major factor that dictate a market growth or otherwise. As economy structure become more complex, invention of trade mechanism was introduced such as the concept of money. Money concept made economy growth faster, as it made trading more convenient , save and efficient. History shown allocation of money will ultimately decide the trend of economy growth. at least at its facet. 

Understanding economy events from recorded history scripts, logs and books, modern economic pundits unanimously concluded, monetary policies is what economy subject all about. Stimulation, spending, debts, export and import are all monetary. 20 Century economic figure such as John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman agreed on regulating economy can be done through regulating the monetary supply. From creation of IMF during 1944 at Bretton wood to abolishment of gold standard on 1971 by Nixon; it made monetary system controllable by America (since US dollar is International Nominated currency). Monetary Valves (such as interest rate, discount rate, government bonds) were installed through out financial institution around the world to regulate the monetary supply. However, economist might been chasing the wrong shadow.

From the perspective of fundamental on economy, it should be always and will be about people. Economy term itself is come from greek means household management which mean again people. People is the one who buying and selling. People is what supply demand came from. And in fact, in all of economical revolution from agrarian economy to industrialization to today information boom economy are driven by innovation of people, not money. Money is nothing mere than a medium of convenient exchange. It is a economy apparatus. It does not induce or cause people to spend. Imagine if million dollar is given to every each of us, but if there is no goods nor services to be purchased, the million dollars mean nothing. Money is good incentive to encourage people to do what they did for the economy for the pass 500 years and so, but was never the root of economy itself.

Economy should be subject of psychology. Ultimately a given nation economy condition is very much depend on psychological wealth of its people. If a nation fill good citizens who possess strong psychological strength, oftenly, the nation wealth grow exponentially. Innovation, creativity and perseverance are the result of psychological aspect. Money in fact was never the best motivator. All great man never look for money, they look for a vision. However, vision is never in the equation of modern economy structure. 

Vision is something we envision for better goods for all. Alleviation of  standard of living, social status, social development all involve humane aspect of vision. Monetary wealth incentive had since accidentally increase our technological breakthrough for the pass 500 years, however, it hinder any form of social development. When you see there are nations (developed countries) of citizens who enjoy lifestyle of King could never experienced before 500 years today, while billion of poor nation (under developed countries) country people cant even has proper access to basic needs (such as water, sanitation and food), the common sense should had tell us that the current economy system is ill. The saddest part, social development today even measured by how much money you had or you have. Modern society population are always ignorance against the current real situation especially when they are in comfortable life. Such trend will eventually make human social structure self destructive. 

The good news is today, many of us have a better freedom to express our concern. There are plenty of channel enable use to share our thought appropriately. By collective informative empowerment at the right magnitude and attitude, we all be able to make changes regardless government monetary policies. As nature always come back with vengeance,  the law of nature of economy will always prevail. Economy is about people. Therefore, if we really want to change current economy system, the best way is by starting change ourself and act upon it. 

Real Estate Economy is Local

In today global capitalism economy structure, virtual everything is available to global market 24-7. One side of the world market closing is another side of market opening. American Stock exchange will direct impact the economy sentiment of it eastern nation counter part. Isolation of economy downturn has since become obsolete after berlin wall crushed down on 1989. Today, as long as your portfolio are in financial derivative, you vulnerable to any global economy incident.

However, Real Estate investing, aka property investing is very different from other financial apparatus investing. Even though, there many paper derivative of property investing such as reit or mutual fund or public company; still such portion of investing scheme are not comparable to stock market or commodities derivative exchanges.

First, Real estate as refer to it term itself, is an estate, therefore are local. Real estate value are mainly driven by local market sentiment or it local supply and demand aka population. Local population is what really make a piece of real estate valuable or otherwise. A healthy demography which has a lot of young people who eventually translate into home buyer will drive the market up. While a aging demography where older population selling off homes with no enough young home buyer to absorb the supply will drive the market down.

Second, local political stability is very important to have your land valuable or desirable. Regardless how global market is booming, if your piece of land is situated at country where it is not very desire to live in, your property is worthless. Property only as good as the safety, comfortability, conveniency and shelter quality it could provide. Regardless you bough to live in or rented out, is about livability.

Third, infrastructure and tenancy quality of the neighborhood. A home is nothing but a home. The value is driven by the neighborhood quality it could provide. Buying a home is buying its neighborhood. Imagine regardless how luxury your unit you bought with, but your unit is situated in the middle of slump. It make your property worthless as it is to your vicinity. As equal, if you bought a luxury vacation villa, but there is no access to it, your home is worthless.

Finally, investing real estate are almost restricted by it own government regulation and policies. All government tend to have control over it property supply and demand to secure it own political interests. making your own country home unaffordable to your own people, tend to make your citizen quality bad. A country only as good as its citizen itself. Therefore, all socially stable country, always impose certain restriction on how foreigner can own the local property. Politician understood that, foreigner are just foreigner. They are not staying here, therefore , houses here has no sentimental value to them. Any Short term property market down turn will bring down the whole property market if major percentage of property is owned by foreigner. It is the concept that make stock market vulnerable, because it is easily accessible by global investor.  However, as long most of the property is owned by local healthy population, regardless economy condition, as long people are staying here, they are unlikely to push the panic button to sell off. And local people will keep the property occupied which is to avoid high vacancy that drive a neighborhood into a ghost town. Therefore, a good government property investing policies very important to make it property market vibrant and healthy.

Economy, Poverty, Stability, Competitive, Future

Economy had always been with us since millions years ago. It was not prominent until we shift from gather and hunter lifestyle to agrarian community.  Agriculture made human for the first time be able to be a settler. Community proved to be more effective in expand its demography by settle in one strategic location than continuously roaming around. Expansion of population made subject of economy become the pivotal pillar for our human culture ever since.

In any complex civilization, it consist of population scale which required to be regulated. Human behaviour has to be regulated to ensure stability in a given community. Kings, barons, aristocrats or the great pirate (depicted in Dr. Fuller series) ; were the first group of "class" to acknowledge such concept. Unlike gather and hunter, virtually everyone are equal in term of economy, which shared everything they hunted without surplus. In fact, food and meats was very difficult to be store given the primitive lifestyle we all used to be. Agriculture made storage possible, with corps and corns often yield more than enough to feed a community during good season. The surpluses of harvest instead of given to people (which make them without incentive to bow to the kings or ruler classes) become a useful tools for ruler class to exert control over majority population. By controlling how and when to feed the people, we may have power over people. Regulated population was translated into stability, but at the expenses of systematically subservient condition to major population. That was the trend until industrialization age, when people can no longer within the poverty and revolution took place in many countries.

Incentive was what make human to behave in the way they behave. Jobs, roles, and responsibility, all are traced to the basic necessary gained and needed of each individual. History prove people are much easier to be control by psychological  meant than forces. Therefore, starve and poverty imposition was obsolete. In fact it eventually create back fire to the ruler classes. New ideology such as sociology, democracy and marxism  was the product of poverty imposition. Instead of making people a lower class, ruler class now create a new class of middle class. It make people can possess property for the first time. It give many most of us today something to lose, should we want to change any current circumstances now. Competitive economy policies was created. It make everyone in the context of paper regulations, has the equal chances to move to upper class. Hope is there. Something to lose and hope make human behaviour stable. The system created to ensure people are not desperate, therefore, under control. Good business to ruler class again. Same trend, different scheme at different time.

However, despite rulers class uses the economy, military and even technological meant to continuously exert their influences to majority of people, current economy trend with exponentially technological development has open a whole new opportunities to human kind to rethink what is best for our species regenerative. The brief history of economy as a tools to regulated people seem to be harsh in some way, but given superstitious ,naive, self interested , paranoid instinct human nature (when we lack of proper knowledge and wisdom access) during ancient time (when writing and printing was not even a prevalence social mechanism); utterly freedom without "cruelty" regulated society, perhaps we had long time perish from the history books, let alone discovery of sciences and economical growth that in certain degree uplifted the overall standard of living today. The true question here is, are we as human kind are playing our roles to properly educate ourself, and understand the history (therefore not repeating the same old mistake, and stop using history to critic human event today, make action rather than complain), and let the truth as authorize what is best for our civilization? We are at the cross road in human species history book, either we evolve or we perish... The road will not be easy, as complexity of culture and demographic now was never be comprehend through history pages. Bottom line, this road was never an option. It is necessary by nature.

Rich is Personality

Idea can make a person rich or poor. Idea is an inception of a person being. It shape a person perception and value of life. However, changing an idea sometimes can to be the hardest thing to do.

Rich is not measured by how much a person owned. Rich is above superficial. It is a collection reflective of a person lifestyle, ethic, perception, value and ability. Rich is not something that can be easily taken. It is what you are than what you owned. Unfortunately, misconception about rich is in the context of dollar sign.

The misconception about rich is what make most of people today being poor. Unless the idea of a person change, there is nothing much a person can do to change his current status. Being rich is much more important than to become rich. Being rich is on the spiritual level, while become rich is merely a physical condition. One is eternal, another temporary. Having a lot of money merely increase the capacity of a person to spend but not rich. Rich required a degree of maturity in mind that shape a person character. Rich is personality.

Economy Warfare

Economy has since been part of human civilization. Together with other social system, it make civilization sustainable. The influence of economy become greater when the standard of living of each become better. "Too much to lose" and "Something to lose" make military solution less desirable when come to political dispute. Invasion are no longer within the scope of physical intrusion. Economy has evolved into a tools to extend one nation power to control over others. It has now become a very important national security matters. In modern day, who control the economy take command.

The first economy weapon - IMF. IMF was established on July 22, 1944 at Bretton wood conference to stabilize international exchange rate and assist the reconstruction of international payment system after post-worldwarII. It since become a tools of great western civilization to exert their influence economically to the rest of the world. It was a desperate time for most of the nation to recover from it devastating state after post-war period. Resources was scarce. It was very justified for most developing countries to turn themselves to IMF for monetary assistance. The IMF then will impose rules and regulation to country who ask for assistance, on how they should run their economy policies, hence indirectly directing the social structure of the country. Such instrument was the on of the kind solution for west to keep their control power over the world. It was a brilliant idea at brilliant timing.

The Second instrument used in economy warfare is fiat international currency. The nation who her currencies is nominated at the sole single international trade currency will have the privilege not only control over the international trade, but literately able to enjoy free commodities and products from the rest of the world.

The third kind of instrument is financial instruments that has become greater in term of its complexity. The derivative and leverage market has the power to overnight tumble a nation economy. Economy pitfall during 1997, 2000 and 2008 were great example for what derivative market can do to the market. It is a time bomb that nurture economy perfect storm. As the concept of money and trade become more virtual and electronic, the efficiency for economy damage to spread are at the speed of light.

The fourth kind of instrument is debt. Debt was never a concept that well accepted until recent day. Debt was perceived as evil and bad during our grandfather time. But it was history. Today economy, debt was the main propulsion system that keep it run and growth. Banking system promote debt. People has to take debt in order for economy to growth. It a U-turn road. Houses, cars, educations, vacations and household expenses, are all feed by debt. It make human to become slave to pay back the debt. It was the ultimate weapon to control over billion of population.

For all instruments discussed above were just some of the example of how economy become a weaponary system in modern civilization. The reality of economy warfare cannot be undermined given the potential treat to our world stability. With collapse of one economy, military resolution will become inevitable. The good news is, it is possible to have a win win version economy environment. It is up to political leaders of great nations to face the reality, to decide, if not make move, to create the version of future that is good for everyone or otherwise.

The Universal Economic Formula

Since human began to form complex civilization, economy and trade has became the beacon of stability. Stability is important for peace and growth of the society. Without stability, a civilization can fall. 

Knowing the important of economy within our civilization, it is essential to develop a right formula to produce a right equation with the right variable. Since industrial age, economist had cracked their head to seek for the right answer. With trial and error, empirical experiences has contribute a significant progress to the finding. 

The history has shown us that ineffective economy system and poor implementation will hamper the civilization progress. It take a good implementer with a right system to produce sustainable economy ecosystem. However, there is no universal economic formula. The reason is due to the nature of economy itself is made of people, tradition and culture. With different situation, culture and environment, one kind of system can outperform others. While some system are good at beginning, but require radical changes when certain milestones is achieved. The key to success is to acknowledge the formula is rather dynamic than a constant equation. It require continuous progression, versatility and adaptability to react with social environmental changes. 

Capitalism and laissez-faire free economic system is considered to be as our current mainstream, most advocated effective economy system preached by the west. The america empire is the ambassador for the capitalism economy model. The system work so well (Even not until recent days) is mainly contributed by the nature of the american culture which are more to individualistic and self-dependency. The discipline of each of individual to take hold their own fortune condition and wellness as their own business to take care. Such culture and environment favour capitalism to work. The invisible hand of adman smith is strong under such given circumstances. However, it does not work well in the eastern nation counterpart such as China, Korea and Japan.

Japan was at his pinnacle of  economic achievement at mid 1980s. She become the next economy power house next to america from the state of poverty and at the brink of total collapse due the product of post-war. However, the economic miracle was not the product of capitalism. It is socialism in principle but capitalism on wealth distribution. By monster Sahashi, the ministry of MITI, Japan Inc was formed. It was a government bureaucrat center planning model which dictate the course of economy path by induce incentive to favoured industry, and implement protectionism to protect local businesses from foreign treats. It is a model where government in principle control all the capital and resources, and decide who and how it should be utilized. It is believed that, a center controlled system can eradicate wastes due to overlapping efforts by private sectors during the trail and error to achieve development progress. It is believed that, by putting together the resources, the center government who think they know what is best for the country can be more effectively allocate the resources to produce a much better result. It work well, and successfully transform a country that has nothing in principle (Natural resources) to a country that produces almost everything from heavy industry to electronic to automotive, to consumer products. The hindsight, that socialism tremendously work well in Japanese society is contributed by her society tradition, culture and environment. The Japanese are collaborating in nature, and less individualistic. They believe in the society system that ruler is what decide the course of nature of any future event of society, good or bad. They are tuned in the mood of following vision of the ruler, and work the best out of themselves to achieve each given tasks. They are less self-interest and believing in serving something bigger than themselves for the betterment of lager picture - the society as a whole. They able to endure delay gratification in nature, and preaching the idea of work hard for the nation is a noble. Such environment making socialism the most effective system suitable to Japan, and also China, Taiwan, Korea and Singapore who somehow share the similar culture and societal belief. 

The concept of economic formula is rather a dynamic tuning and discovering process rather than a universal static equation. It is a conditioning formula decided by its variable such as economical and societal culture changes. It means, a well proven successful formula might work well at certain given time, conditions,  nation and cultures, but could not sustain a different set of situation. There is no universal economic formula.

  

Currency

Bretton Wood was the monetary system before 1971. It mark the important milestone of paper currency for the first time, made international. The currency was U.S dollar. After WWII, most country was struggled to rebuild their situation. United State industry is the least affected by the man made disaster. The rest of the world were required to import products from United State, for many could not be produces locally due to war aftermath. Taking a step further, United State introduce bretton wood to replace gold standard which was practiced for international trade. It was promoted to be a much more convenient way to trade. United State also promise for every 35 U.S dollar is exchangeable an once of gold to strengthen the confident of the system.  Furthermore, the rest of the world during that time, was running out of gold reserves. Most of them were consumed and traded for military supplies during WWII. It was the direct relief for the rest of the world, given the situation they had during the time.

Vietnam war raged. Excessive U.S dollar was printed. The world begin to question the trust worthiness of the currency. Frenzy panic set in, where countries begin to trade most of currency reserve with gold. Noting the situation could be irreversible, President Nixon took a audacious step to abolish Bretten Wood to secure national interest. Fiat currency was introduced. Currency was no longer peg with gold. It become a debt instrument. It is a government backed set, guarantee by the political, military and economy stability of the country. In a simplified way, the trustworthiness of United State tax payer.

The fiat currency system is a leverage instrument to enable people to borrow future resources for today immediate gain. It like a catalyst that accelerate the chemical reaction of economy. It make most of the average people a channel to access to many luxury like houses, cars and expensive vacation. It made rich get richer quicker. It make country (United State) to strip off anything in the world for her own interest quicker, faster and efficient, with penny of cost. It is a house of card that required continuous feeding of debt. It is a two edge sword which on the other side a international ponzi scheme.

Fiat currency was since then adopted internationally. 169 countries in the world share a common currency as international reserves for international trade. It means if Japanese company would like to sell cars to other country, by technical point of view, the other country is required to exchange the country currency to U.S Dollar and buy the Japanese Car. The Japanese company, then can choose to keep the U.S Dollar for reserve, or buying products from other country or buying U.S dollar dominated Assets. But, somehow, the Japanese company is required to exchange some portion of its profit into Japanese yen, to pay expenses in japan, where the car is produces. The flow of exchange  is the mechanism how each currency supply and demand will affect a country exchange rate.

The fiat currency has grown to state where no turning back is possible. The problem has begin to become more obvious. The immediate repercussion is raising commodities price and excessive inflation. Those however do not hurt everyone, at least for those who are rich and who know how to choose a side. Unfortunately, there are only approximately 10% of today world population are aware of such situation. In order to secure our future, we need to readjust our perception of currency, to avoid falling into the international currency storm, which might happen anytime soon.

What is Internet Business?

Today the world is 13 years old. The berlin wall come down at 1989 set the date of information ages. The industrial age fade out, with world wide web went up. “www”, “http”, ethernet, 3G, 4G is the new language today. What is your bandwidth? is a prevalence question to measure how powerful your internet muscle. 

By evolution of internet, businesses also evolved. “Business model”, a MBA jargon, has and had include internet as a important subject in the syllabus. Ask anyone who start a business, he or she will very likely to tell you, i am in the internet business model. But, what does it mean by that? Isn’t internet just merely a technological breakthrough in 21st century? How would it now is playing a role of “business evolution”?  

The truth is, internet is just a technological breakthrough. Nothing more nothing less. It never mean to be anything to do with business. The internet merely provide us a new tools to do things differently.  Therefore, everything, by means everything we use to do, including businesses changes. So, what is that? Isn’t such context had justify the idea of internet business evolution? The answer is yes and no. The key points is, people has caught themselves off guard of what is primary and secondary in businesses. And this is what my article is all about.

And for the record, businesses does not change in its nature. Supply and demand, profit and lost is the fundamental rules. That is primary. The secondary is the supportive factors, such as tools, management, people, leaderships, marketing etc. It is very subjective rules against the primary objective rules. The primary and secondary by logic should be jibe in each other. Unfortunately, it is not the case in today. The key here is simplicity (Objective) versus complexity (Subjective). 

Invention of paper, to writing, to printing and now internets, is a products of our civilizations. Business had since “evolved” since of every new inventions is introduced. The word “evolved” had make something that should be simple into something that a so complex. Perhaps it is the human nature of propensity to complexity. It make us feel superior, special and feed our ego. With internet introduced, business become even more complex. Stories of success, almost include internet as the rule of thumb to success, if you want to get a piece of cake in the market. Blogger, journalist, columnist, business news anchors and even business men had doing so successfully to promote internet as a most essential blood stream in today business world. It cause a frenzy in the market. That is the feeding frenzy that bring along the internet bubble during 2000. Today, consider to be the most opportunistic ages in any history of human kind, almost anyone can be a business owner, perhaps millionaire in just a few months. All cheering thanks to internets. Internet had plug in everyone to access to all the wealth available. Personally, that is over exaggerated.     

Internet did provide us a different way of doing things, more efficiently and more connected. But, in the ends it is just a tools. It by nature itself, does not make success. Today, there are many companies and business are doing extremely well, because of internet. But, those companies never a internet companies. Investors, are now speculating in “internet businesses”. ANything that is internet connected, with fair ideas and sale pitch, they are in. Take a good example, Facebook,inc. Billion of dollars is flooding the company. Making the founder so riches. But, the company itself, does not really generate any real economic value to feed its expansion and expenses. 500 millions users, big deals, but ask again, is Facebook really irreplaceable? It has a notions, with that kind of volume, doing anything will be successful. But ask again, what useful to have 500 million soldiers who cannot fight? It is just an assumption of something might and might not happen in future - gambling. Facebook to be so successful today, are mainly due to “free services” and no”advertisement” Social networking with a “simplicity” functionality. What do you think about changing those notions will make user continues to use your network? Think about myspace and yahoo!, use to be so extremely successful. Then what now? I hardly have any friends actively use any of them. And bad news, Facebook had since become less user friendly interface - complex.

Today Social networks, are many. Each is very difficult to be distinguished to each others. Each can be replaced by others in very short times. If you does not have something so special and deeply served the needs of users, it is gambling against the emotional choice of internet users. And all emotion does include boredom. When that come, it is game over.  In the fundamental of business, never lost sight of supply and demand. Demand is value, needs that in very simple terms benefit to users - civilization value. Supply is how you bring out the demand is very effective, constructive and innovation ways to make money - economy value to yourself. If you can’t explain your company in very simple terms at how it make money, and how it help people, you are in trouble. For instance Google, had since so innovate in pulling all information from all location to one stops using internet. It is not a internet business. It is an informations service provider. And by attract people to use its search engine, it provide advertisement programs to make money. Google become so successful because it make money,and it serve people. It has economy value and civilization value. Apple.inc, Steve jobs bring out a civilization value by its products. A digital lifestyle notions that make people life more interesting. Never about icloud or machine that could bring you to internet. Now it is the no.1 market capitalization company in the world, surpass Exxon Mobil. It has both economic and civilization value. Fedex, logistic, provide supply chain solutions to customers. Civilization value - delivery of urgency, feedback, management package to her customers. Customer like it, and it make money. Never about the internet tracking systems. Paypal, security and connivence service provider of payment gateway. People like it and use it. It charges minor fee during withdrawal . Therefore, it make money. It never was a internet business. There are many more example you can think of. The internet just a tools they use to get out of the best to his customer need. “connected and efficient”. 

As conclusion, there shouldn’t be a notion of internet business, unless you are at&t or license ISP. Never over react by the notions of include internet into your business strategy. Internet is a two edge swords if you does not use it properly as any other weapon and tools, it might hurt you. Master the primary rules of business - supply and demand (Economic value and Civilization Value). The secondary supportive factors should be very flexible depend on your circumstances and needs. Never caught your in the “internet frenzy trap”.      

New World Order

On the hindsight of the past 50 years and so, we believe that we had enjoyed one of the longest peace time throughout recorded history of human kind. Yet, there been many prominent threats within that false sense of security. There are many controversial theory, conspiracy, ideology and hypothesis on how our world will once again fall into the pit hole of savage - the collapse of the modern civilization. From energy, to jobs, to economic, to politic, our world has never been on peace but a truce setting up by nations after the WWII and the Cold War. We never, in fact on this context never learned the mistake we took. We just pushing the problem forward.

The idea of civilization is a mechanism on how our society work. Society work when the mechanism is fair, efficient, regulated and unified. On all above, we however able to achieve all but "unified". Today, the united nations have roughly 192 nation in members. That's counted to be at least 192 distinctive regulator, government and system through out the world. Distinctive by means different. Different by mean will ultimately create friction and conflict of interest. "What a power man desire? More power!" As we all human by nature is a selfish creature, everyone, every nation will do whatever it takes to safeguard their own interest, in the expense of world peace. Imagine how does the conflicts of conflicts between 192 nations could produce? The Moore's law will do the math. The more unfortunate event is that the chamber of United nation as a mediator did not do any good jobs to be a body to solve any conflict within her members. Syria and Iran tell the case. By continuously to maintain separate governments and separate nation policies in our world, we will eventually repeat the mistake of our ancient civilization. The only way, for our civilization to leap to a next level is a one unified world, regardless of race, color, language, religion and ethnic. A new world order i would like to say here. One government, one people, one nation, one system.

There are many things we could not do, but we capable of doing, for the real benefit of the world, and for the continuity of our species. However, the only factor that limit us from doing that is we live in the non-unified world. For instances, energy crisis had happen since 1990s. We are so dependable to fossil energy, and other non-eneviromental friendly means of energy. Todays, our scientist have warn about the disastrous that our energy policies will bring to the world, and urging us to swift to clean energy resources such as solar, wind and hydro. On the technological pint of view, we indeed has the capabilities to do it. But what really stop us from execution, is not the switching costs, but geopolitical issues that raise. On the scale of so many different kind of government exist today, for any new idea that would undermine certain group self-interest will definitely jeopardize the change movement. Others, from the point of view of economy, for instance, today we are on the trade which countries with cheaper currency and man power will have an advantage toward the counter part countries. As trade boarder between nations become easier and easier, we are on the economic system of win-lose scenario. Someone has to lose in order to someone to win. This is a very unhealthy scenario whereby in fact the world we are living is set up for everyone to win. On the win-lose idea, conflict a raise, and therefore, a new problem from such conflicts will just a downward spiral, like viral that will eventually eat up all the resource, energy and understanding between nations involved. There are many more to think of...

Today, we live in the time of uncertainty. Economic crisis, energy crisis is eminent. Even some has speculate the world war 3. The problem are the by product of non-unify world orders. For we all are suppose under the same decedent, and evolution has making us apart geopolitically, we all are actually the same, apart of a superficial differences. For our future survival deep lie under how our society system direction moving to, should we not move into the "new world order", with one idea, one nation, one people, we will no choice but to stagnant in our civilization, by than, our existential will be undermined. There are much to discover, to achieve by us. It limits is not by technological but by the nature on how our live today. More the price to pay, or the scarify to make, there are something that we must do, if we want to make changes. "Insanity is doing the same things everyday to expect a different result tomorrow!"

Pushing the Problem Forward

On 2008, the global financial system in on the brink of collapse. Lehman Brother filed for chapter 11. Within 2 months, many giant financial institutions went through the same process of going bankrupt. AIG, Citi Group, BofA, and other comparable size of institutions, are no escape form the financial crisis. Major indexes went through a dramatic bear market, putting trillion of dollars in lost. Not until one of the biggest investment bank , JPMorgan heading to the same road as Lehman Brother, federal bank of united states step in. Too big to fail become a imminent crisis that the government worried the most. It is understandable that, with another big financial institution collapse, it will cripple the whole capital market. A ripple affect that will cascade down to every industry from commodities, foods, services and medical. There will be a catastrophic kind of mankind social disaster that will result to a bigger societal problem. The immediate "solution" - government step involved to carry the weight of trouble those bankers had made.

There are many major steps took by federal reserve of united states during 2008-2009 to solve the so called imminent problem, the "solution". First, bank can direct borrow from the federal reserve. Such move putting all taxes payer money direct access to banks, that consider on too big category to be able to "write-off" short term losses, meaning, bankers can do business by other people money, and having absolute insurance from government. A "guarantee-win" scheme for banks encourage even more aggressive investment in future. A immediate affect of the first move from the fed, result a flood of dollar to the market. With the advancement of technology todays, the fed does not need to induce money supply by physical minting. However, electronic book keeping enable the fed to provide required liquidity demand by banks and other financial institutions by simply register a figure. Such move are accompany by all time low interest rate, making a loan become cheaper.

Third, as there is no free lunch, by putting taxes payer money in stake, the government has to answer to their people. So, a declare of ownership for many private institution is the modest acceptable by the public. Many institution are being nationalized, particularly AIG. For the first time, the bureaucrat which notoriously bad in taking care of business, are on the business. It significantly making blur between the different of the position between private institutions and regulator. It sound like "communism" in some people's eye.

Forth, commercial bank and investment bank was once separate in different entity. It somehow putting up a barrier of risks from investment banking to ordinary people's saving. However, amendments is made during the crisis time, making pure investment bank become relic. It enable investment bank which the primary problem during the crisis to have a better access of liquidity to buried the holes that made at the first place, the government allow a merge between saving banks and investment banks for a better access of "capital". This putting a more dangerous timing bombs to the financial system which will drown every people saving, if the crisis preface again.

Fifth, the government become a bank dealer to "introduce" buyers to buy institutions that is in deep trouble in a penny price, plus a protection scheme from the government itself. Example, on 29 september 2008, well fargo are channel by the fed to "save" Wachovia. The scheme, the fed will secure the fund for the buy out. Isn't it good to buy something when somebody else paid for you.

Sixth, TARP - troubled asset relief program, become part of the lexicon in the industry. With banks' greed to seize profit during the boom time, many subprime mortgage are now somebody to pay off. Thousand losing their home, and value of houses drop dramatically after the feeding frenzy. Then, to win favor of people, the government swear to save thousand homes mortgage by provide TARP 700 billion funds.

Seventh, Henry Paulson, fed chairman during the time summon big banks to accept "loan" from government from the TARP fund to secure their position of any weak spot. All CEO of banks accept the loan. The truth is, government are using TARP as a channel for them to step into the affair of banking business.

The government go even further to step into the affair of business. Bank of America is forced to merge with Merrill Lynch on 2009, January 16. The Government secure the financing, making a bigger "too big to fail" giant emerge. The financing is secure by? nothing but a pure optimism of thing will be better in future. On march 19, 2009, Timothy Geithner, treasurer security under administration of Obama, step in to buy out toxic assets using PPIP (Public Private investment program). It allow private institution to lend hand to buy out toxic loan from the market with a security by government. Another scheme for huge profit potential with minimum risk. The risk all are bear by the government.

So, as a general conclusion from what we had been, the government does not really solve any problem. It only pushing the problem forward using future money by increase the government debt. The debt someday will collapse as a house of card. Today 13 trillion dollar is registered as debt hold by the united states. The systemic problem cannot be solved by simply amend few acts or big bucks. The system crisis is cause by greed and stupidity of the riches. They will not learn the lesson, if you do not let them to fall. The ignorance of the government and industry to accept the failure, hoping to use artificial means to deal with the law of nature, to mediate temporary pain by excessive pain killer, is a pushing forward the catastrophe of a perfect storm in future. Pushing forward is simply the worst kind of "solution". See what is going on and about to happen in the market , such as european debt crisis, middle east conflict, energies crisis, currencies wars, it all related back to the steps and "remedies" took by our regulator.

Globalization

Globalization. Word that is no stranger to people who live in 21st century. We heard of it, speak of it. But, what does it mean? What is the content and context behind the word, let alone the lexicographic part. The simplest way to depict the globalization is the world had and still is evolving from many to one. It means the boundaries between 150s nations we known today are depleting. The innovation and technological breakthrough since the collapse of berlin wall has leveled the economy and social field of our world.

In the old times, the world are separated into nations. Each nation preserved and live by its own rules. Protectionism is prevalent. Vertical is how the society work. Bureaucrat and strata status can be seen on both capitalist and socialist country. Today, the capacity of modem and fiber optic cable are enormous. Thanks to the over investment during the dot-com bubble on millennium. Together with exponential growth processing capacity of chips, more and more powerful portable device is invented. People are now able to buy a device with very low price that able to produce productivity of 50 person during 1950s. Beside, the device and bring you to the virtue world of internet that has no boundaries. Information are overwhelmingly available. People are connected in ways beyond imagination of our ancestor. By that it the prelude of globalization.

Globalization will ultimately bring forth 150s separate nations into one integrated community. Unlike during the cold world, the world is under two super power. Today, the world is going into the direction of no one in charges. The changes are unseen and progressively. Unfortunately, most of us unaware of it, even though we speak of it. The impact behind the changes will be evolutionary. It will change the way we live. It will change our belief. Those who cannot keep up with the changes will be left behind.

Firstly, the impact will be jobs. Most of developed countries now are facing challenges of jobs are being took away. Not just the blue collar jobs, but the white collar jobs. Countries such as india, china and south east asia, they are more younger, smarter and cheaper labor available to the market now. With convergence of information technology and the idea of capitalism oriented society, jobs are going to the most economic solutions. And more recently, automation are becoming trendy in the industry, where robotic solution are brought to replace human capital. There are many jobs now used to be human drive are now can easily be done by "0101 logic" drive robot. So, where will you place yourself in the new world. Are you worry about your future? As globalization will eventually bring the world economy toward global balances, there are equally fair in both opportunities and downsizes to everyone. Which part you will be will depend on how you be able to adapt and changes with the fast changing world.

Second, the economy and business will no longer limit by geographically. There will be no more saying Apple.inc in American company or RollsRoyce is a british company. The business activities itself are going off geography. Now, all business are looking to invest in countries that will provide economical advantages. Today, Apple.inc for example, are manufacturing its iPhones, iPods, iPads and Macs in China. As more most of her employee are now foreigner in foreign countries. How would you like to define Apple.inc are American company, even though she incorporated in America. It use to be the bigger the company in your country, the more benefit the people within the country will enjoy it. But now, the rules had changes. Developed countries are now no longer enjoy the privilege of getting the best business position first. Geographical element are no longer served you very well in businesses. There are no more different between company that from "America" than the company from "India". Both have a equal chances of striving in the new globalization world.

Third, company size are no longer matter. With technologies available today, one can be small and act big. Leverages are every ways. The business are no longer limits by the boundaries of physical location. Distance are no longer matter. Meaning, even the smallest company with the best innovative idea, can compete with the empire of state building. Fast, accuracy and effectiveness are the only answer will make the survive. You might be the king of the world today, but tomorrow you might be out of the businesses.

Fourth, political and social changes. As globalization is coming, the boundaries are depleting, government are going to deal with a more complex society. It is hard for a government to govern a society of 400 millions population such as America, giving with the resources and capability of greatest nation in the world today. Imagine how the society will become when 6.5 billion people are connected. How would government dealing each other and how will the culture collapse among 6.5 billion population end up with? It served as a double edge swords, as political and social idea are easy to spread, as many optimist suggest the world will become more civilized and educated and knowledge is now free everyday. It will prove that to be truth if only the good knowledge is spread. However, the information technology served those extremist with left-wing ideas to bring chaos to the world. The technology that human create today are impersonal to either good or bad knowledge. AlQaeda are the epitome for such case. The less boundaries world will bring forth a more complex society we will never encounter in history. Which direction we will be heading are still unknown.

Lastly, environmental issues, energy and natural resources. As the world become smaller, the demand of good life will be extensive. We all now the rules of 90/10, as 10% of population today enjoy the 90% of resources in the world. It work only if the world has the boundaries between the rich nation and the poor one. But, as globalization are contagious and persistence, the lower strata level of majority population will start to wake up and want to eat the pie. The demand of resources will be enormous. The frenzy of enjoy the riches enjoy, the american dream will make majority undeveloped country to do whatever it take to take the place of the developed country - including destroyed the ecosystem of our nature. The energy demand will exponentially grow in way of supply could not coupe with. It mean, the natural resource and energy supply will dwindle in the pace we human could not perceived. And by then, if without a proper education and planning on global scale, our world will be eaten up parasite that so frenzy and selfish - homo sapiens.

As the conclusion, globalization sound a word, but what lay within it is much more to learn. It is always truth that for everything we known, 90% are in the invisible. Therefore, we all must act and prepared for the biggest evolution to come. A very big challenges that every human kind need to participate actively or passively. It is a silent impact that gradually happening around us everyday, slowly and progressively in a growing pace. It will be a big event in the history book of our next generation.

Energy Crisis

Energy is part of our civilization. It is what keeping the economy to move and prosper. The energy provide us the source of light, heat, power and drive for our idea to be manifested in physical world. Energy give factory to produce, keep computer to work, keep the light to on, keep the building warm during winter, keep the vehicles to move and more. Energy enable us to erect 400m length of giant ship, enable us to send space ship to the moon, enable us to build bridges and roads, and finally enable to keep food production to sustain 6.5 billion life on earth (maybe not all 6.5 billion). Energy is playing a very important role in our everyday life, keeping our civilization stable and sustain. Energy is what drive the economy engine to run. Imagine what will happen when energy runs out?

Most of us will likely to believe the scientist will take care of it. The politician will not let such things to happen. It will not be at least during my time. Regardless which mindset you are, is irrelevant. It will never change the facts, indeed the cheap fossil energy we enjoyed for the pass few decade is running out. What could explain the recent surge of fuel price despite we undergo a major financial institution downsize in the history? What could explain despise the automobile market is on all time low, with jobless at America (the world major consumers) at 9.2%, and many European countries are on the brink of default (Greek for example); the energy price still on surge? With many economy calamities on global scale, which in fact will drive down the market demand (on aftermath effect); the energy price surge to all time high at 100 USD range. The simplest way to explain, is the supply had fall. As supply and demand is the most fundamental rule to govern the price of items (acknowledged there are other facts such as taxes, government policies and physiology of market), we now should be able to see the implication of energy supply crisis in near future. The crisis will bring severe recession, then depression, with hyperinflation ending (Wiemar republic German during 1910s); our known civilization world can collapse. Such implicitness incident are not new to us, as happen during 1970s, 80s. But, we human are very forgetful. Most of us reluctant or choose not to acknowledge the problems, let alone to act for prevention nor cure. How to please our boss tomorrow seem to be a more divine jobs to do for most of us.

As for every disease, come with certain cure. The crisis we might faced are not totally deathly. It just require a total new way of thinking and reformation of lifestyle in global scale. I am no expert to comment or suggest any solution but innovation and transition from dependence on fossil energy to clean conservative renewable energy (wind, solar, etc) is logically one of it. Unfortunately, such innovation effort are not even at half of silicon valley efforts (IT which is good to have, but without it, we still survive, as refer to our grandfather days) . Experts estimated as for US alone to do such transition will cause about 1 trillion dollar (equivalent to the expenses of world war 2). It require both public and private cooperation to make the change happen. It is worth it, if human can perceived the most obvious essential thing in life - heritage (civilization & our next generation survival) and our planet earth. What uses for the wealth (pseudo paper money), if the civilization are no longer exist, or be worst our used to be a clean green equilibrium world are on the brink of disastrous. It is not the 200% return of investment the good investment for us to made next year, but a negative return investment to our mother earth, which the only reason we able to survive until now.

Analysis Paralysis

Analyst - one of the formidable position in the world of investing. The job of analyst is to gather data and information pertaining to certain investment deal, put it into organized manner on a more comprehensible scale for investor to judge rationally whether or not to go with the deal. Analysis provide impersonal facts and justification for decision making. It a way of investing against speculative method. It is believed to be a logical method to eliminate, ideally all the risks with maximum reward - a perfect plan.

Back in 18th century to mid 20th century, to be a analyst is a privilege for only big institutions such as banks. Information were difficult to be accessed. It's belongs only to certain small group of manipulator - those who are rich and powerful. Then, after the cold war, and the Berlin's wall came down, world wide web went up. Today, the information age enable almost everyone to be their own analyst. Information is there to reach by plug in a Ethernet cable and a mouse click. The problem now is not where to get the information, but too much information. Just to separate between useful one from the non-useful one, takes a lot of time, despite the powerful computer leverage we possess. Other, is obsolete information where the world is moving so fast today. The answer yesterday are no longer valid by tomorrow. Our mind have to think as quickly as the world is moving or else we will be left behind. From supply and demand, market psychology, trend, consumer pattern to legal structures; it eat up brain cells of most investor to analyze a deal. As top down analysis is the what the prevalence way of most investor choose today, it often lure them into a paralysis pattern. With overwhelming information to be processed, they end up never ending processes. By the time old information is digested, they have to invite new information to be cross check. Imagine how exhausted you will be, while finding an answer for yesterday, but do not sure whether it will be useful today. It is like living in the shadow of yesterday forever - analysis paralysis.

Therefore, to avoid being trapped into analysis paralysis, one should consider innovation of analysis. Bottom up is good for small investor who wanted to start small by narrowing down the economy scale, for instance a city to a small town. bring in a team to leverage the brain power will be another feasible idea to do the analysis effectively. Finally, one should not look for the perfect result, but a guideline according to what you are looking for and your conditions. By counter off some detail, with greater detail to others, one can come with a optimum risks to rewards result, which depend of each individual situation. Analysis is never designed to eliminate 100% risks or making a perfect plan, but to create a pictures on how things will work out with given certain risk to reward ratio.

Make a Million from Nothing

I wish my parent had given me 10 of million of assets or trust fund to inherit with. Yet, it is not an excuse for me not to achieve my dream to own a million - or many millions. In life there are many challenges for each of us to meet. Some of us give up, move on and choose the life that make them secure rather than free and wealthy; some simply fight it and eventually get what they really want.

I see life as a gift. And I believe everyone is born in this world with special talents and gifts. Gift such as singing, preaching, dancing, painting and business. Unfortunately, most parents and teachers see those "gift" is as unnecessary and discourage us to develop the potential. The education system today teaching us only to be what the system want us to be - job and securities; rather than what we choose to be. They teach us only the "right" answer for them not for us. There are no right and wrong in way of life, only options and choices. Such system is greatly hinder our mind to think, to act, to be what we want to be.

So, how to be what we want to be, such a millionaire? Intended! Be conscious about yourself, know yourself and find out why you hate what you are today, and why you will love what you really want to be. Be passionate, and making every obstacle in life for you to achieve your dream as a challenge to your strength. Treat being poor, no college degree, no resources, no network, wrong timing as a gifted training in life for you to become stronger. See those as tests for your adventure to your dream. Life will not be so interesting, if there are no challenges. Devote yourself to your dream. And whose know, even if you could not achieve the dream, you still about to discover a more interesting life, a true meaning of life for you. By the end of time, you will be able to say to yourself, "I never regret". In the end, we all only have one life, so why living in the life that you don't want than a life that you want?

Value Investing - Cure to Financial Market Crash

Value investing is invented by Benjamin Graham, a notable famous professional investor and Economist who teaching at Columbia business School during 1928 - 1950s. His insight on the subject and principle of investing had greatly influenced many successful investor we have come to know today, specifically warren buffet, his greatest apprentice.

The concept of value investing and its idiosyncrasy principle is looked at the value instead of price. The best illustrate such principle is by the famous quote from warren buffet :" Price is what we pay, value is what we get". The value indicated on the theory is pointing toward the intrinsic and tangible value of a investment, generally the share of a public or private company. Benjamin Graham pointed out that, if should a rational investor buy a share of a company based on its intrinsic value, he or she are basically buying at the minimal risk - marginal safety. Such manner are buying at worst case scenario, should the company went broke, after liquidation of tangible assets, and pay off any attached debt obligations, investor are still be able to recover his or her initial investment money. Still such concept of investing had and still is prompt up many critics and controversy from many technical investors who does not share the same view; who believe in speculation, trend and ultimate earning can only come with fast capital gain of stock price.

Today, Value investing still preach by small group of true fundamental investors who are to be consider the more conservative kind. But, such practices are seem to be more difficult to maintain and keep, due to the volatility and speculation of today market behavior. Temptation of get rich fast scheme become prevalence. It is one of the reason that cause the many market bubble that eventually went to burst. Most of the investors who had read and comprehended on the subject, could not resist the temptation of market share price, and have forgotten what they been taught at the first place. If should the market can preach and walk the concept, million if not thousand of small investors will not fall pray in many of the market crash happened throughout our recent history.

* Also Tribute to David Dodd who equally important, along with Benjamin Graham in contribute to the idea of Value Investing

Terrorism - The Force that Feed of Fear

Terrorism is cheap. It does not need a multi million dollar to b be terrorist. Terrorism is just an idea that feed on people fear. It could be as effective even nothing is happen. From school delinquent, Urban gang to international level terrorist group had proven the idea of effectiveness of terrorism.

Terrorism had become more prevalent throughout 21st century. The 9-11 incident had make terrorism become the number one treat of all human race, above nuclear criss since the cold war. The idea of terrorism is insurmountable. Every time, we heard the politician noting about how they will hammer the terrorist, the terrorist had won. All the publicity warn about terrorist, enhance the emotional treat of people who listen to it. When the emotional state is not secure, people will act in contradict to logical sense. Terrorism ultimate goal is not to kill, nor destroy building. It ultimate goal is to plan a viral idea that could make collapse the social economy system of nations. If terrorism idea successfully to penetrate every single person mind, Money and resources will tend to be hidden, or hoarded rather than invest or spend. Remember, consumption is what drive our economy to move. Imagine, what will happen to the economy if everyone reluctant to spend? It is like a car without gasoline.

How to counter terrorist? There are many ways and methods being proposed domestically and internationally. Most of the ways are about eliminate the terrorist group, or a particular person or leader who believe to be the source of terrorism. It cannot be done. Why? Simply because you can't destroy a religion by simply burn down the temple or killing the priest. The Idea can never be killed or eliminated. It only can be tamed by another idea. The only way to against an idea is by another idea. It happen throughout the history of civilization of mankind. From the dark ages of west, where people have the lowest degree of moral integrity. It eventually come to the end by the teaching of Christianity. Therefore, the only way to fight terrorism is, by education and re-education.

Education is the key to make the world we know now to change. To eliminate all the negative elements such as terrorism. But, again come to another question, how? Unfortunately, even the general concept is there, I could not explain in great detail of such manner of solution, due to my limitation of knowledge and wisdom available now. Perhaps, someday, or someone, will be able to deliver it ...

Demographic and Generation

Demographic is a measurement of human population trend. It depicted the fundamental element regarding the population trend from gender, ages, religion, culture, income to region. It is a very useful information for every investor to have a first hand sense on how the economy outlook will be on both short term and long term prospect. In the end, the market could not exist without human into it. Therefore, population trend and pattern will ultimately decide the faith of the economy system we known today.

The economy or economic study is basically a subject evolve from anthropology. The economy could exist without people into it. Is the interrelationship and interdependent correlation of individual to individual made up a economy system in the society. We trade, exchange and maintain the stability of the society. Therefore the equation for such matter, economy the function to demographic trend.

Demographic is made up of element such as population number, gender, religion, earning, consumption, age and fertility rate. All those element will give us a general picture on how the demand and supply will be future, shirt term and long term. When the demographic is trending up, it normally drive up the demand, therefore the supply. This equal to a a certain degree of economical growth. If it is opposite, the economy will mostly stagnant or retreat according to the scale of decrease of demand. By understanding the demographic, one can be able to structure his or her overall investing plan for a better result. It is one of the key element that every sophisticated investor must learn and master.

Speculating is not Investing

Speculation is what make up the financial market today. Speculation is a scheme on predicting what might happen tomorrow basis on what information that get today. Speculation has become dramatic than ever throughout the history of mankind than ever, thanks to the overload information technology that break the wall of geographical limitation for information to spread. Rumors, opinion and facts becoming more ambiguous. It draw people to confuse what they are actually doing in the market - speculating or investing. Unfortunately, most of the average investor thought there are the same thing.

Speculation is by means betting on something to happen in future based on opinions and rumors. It a merely a guessing game tactic that used by most speculator for the financial gain in the market. The scheme have no real control mechanism involved. It therefore, rely in the reaction of external force toward their guessing game. It is no more different in betting on Craps table in Vegas. On the contrary, investing involve gathering, analyze, and filtering data from reliable sources. They using their knowledge to differentiate between facts and data. They understand they could not predict the future. They are on the scheme of developing a strategy to be prepare in what might happen in future. They are in using a sophisticated strategy to hedge again the drawback of market force, while preserving the advantage position to gain financially. They weight against reward and risks and allocate their resources wisely, unemotionally. It is more like a boring mechanical formula that do not involve any gut instinct to act upon. It a calculated financial profiling of the market trend. More often, it take years of practice and experience before an individual can become a sophisticated investor. There are no overnight expert when come to investing.

By being able to understand the meaning of word, an investor are able to act more rationally to gain his or her place in the volatile market place. It is very important, especially in today market, any changes are happening in the fastest pace that we never encounter before.

Anonymity is Resource

Most of people today underestimated the power of anonymity. They often trap themselves into a psychological framing of no-body can never to beat somebody. They therefore fall trap into process of looking for a free ride from the market leader.

In today world, the market is flood with, if not thousand, but million of product. An average hypermarket in big cities, have approximately 12,000 to 60,000 products. Still, most of the product are indirectly or directly relate to the big boys in the markets. Computer market, peopel relate themselves IBM, HP and Dell. Smart phone - Apple, HTC, Samsung. Paper product - kleenex. Ketchup - Heinz. They tend to imitate what the big boys is doing, as because they think they are no-body. The metooism and improved products are preached by today small companies . They think this is the only way to turn themselves from no-body to somebody. They want to become somebody before they have courages to do it their way. Unfortunately, often, the only scheme those metooism is keeping up with the jones with the big boy, and remain no-body.They never dare to announce themselves as "no-body" and has nothing to do with "somebody". They do not do it as their way, even though they might have a better innovation way of doing things. They underestimate the power of anonymity.

President Nixon is a "somebody" that almost everyone knew, but almost anybody can beat him. That just a extreme example, but not a isolated case. Today, even media is looking for new fresh young look to be introduce to make a new buzz. The audience are very knee to expect something news and underdog to come into market. Even former famous American film maker, printmaker and painter Andy Warhol once said " in future, everyone will be famous for 15 minutes." Therefore, when the 15 minute arrive, be prepare and make most of every second, to earn a extra minutes. Do not underestimate the power of anonymity. Keep it until you ready to spend it. And remember, if you wish to spend it, spend it big and wise.